I am been puzzled with this one for sometime. Given a transition matrix (as below) for a markov chain of N states; how do we calculate the transition matrix for N-1 states, where we combined stat n1 and n2 (see below).
E.g. Want to go from:
States: A B C D E F
A 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
B 0.5 0.1 0.3 0 0.1 0
C 0 0.1 0.9 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0
E 0 0.2 0 0.7 0 0.1
F 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
To :
States: A B C D+E F
A 0.5 0.5 0 ? 0
B 0.5 0.1 0 ? 0
C 0 0.1 0.9 ? 0
D+E 0 ? 0 ? ?
F 0 0 0 ? 0.5
Now I have found I can build this N-1 matrix if I (computationally) simulate the original markov chain (the first transition matrix) and then go back and perform the appropriate state substitution and re-compute the transition matrix.u
My naive instinct is to get the probabilities P(X|D or E) and P(D or E|X) to fill in the ?'s; however, this does not match what you get from the simulation procedure (noted above), at least if you treat
P(X|D or E)= P(X|D)+P(X|E) and P(D or E|X)=P(D|X)+P(E|X) (where X is any of the original states).
Any ideas?