This is one version of Kolmogorov exponential bound from Allan Gut's Probability: A Graduate Course (2005, p385-386). Let $Y_k$ be an independent sequence of random variables with zero mean and finite variances $\sigma_k^2$. Define $s_n^2 := \sum_{k=1}^n \sigma_k^2$. In addition, suppose that for $c_n>0$, $|Y_k| \leq c_ns_n \ a.s.$ for $k = 1, \dots, n$ and for all $n \geq 1$. Then for $0<x<\frac{1}{c_n}$, one has the following upper bound: $$ \mathbb P\left(\sum_{k=1}^n Y_k > xs_n \right) \leq \exp\left\{-\frac{x^2}{2}\left(1-\frac{xc_n}{2}\right)\right\}. $$
This seems to be a more general version. There are several points I do not understand in the book.
- What is $c_n$ and how do we find it for a given distribution? In the book, he gave an example on normal distribution $N(0, \sigma^2)$ as follows. $$\mathbb P\left(\sum_{k=1}^n Y_k > x\sigma\sqrt{n}\right) \leq \frac{1}{x}e^{-\frac{x^2}{2}}, x >0.$$ I can NOT see how to get the right hand side from the theorem. Where is the $1/x$ from? What is the $c_n$ in this case and how do we find it? Could anyone point it out for me, please?
- In the proof, he first tried to prove $$\psi_n(t) := \mathbb E\left[\exp\left(t\sum_{k=1}^n Y_k\right)\right] \leq \exp \left[\frac{t^2s_n^2}{2}\left(1+\frac{tc_ns_n}{2}\right)\right].(\star)$$ I do not get the following line, especially the summation term inside the brackets. Any pointers, please? $$1+ \frac{t^2}{2}\mathbb E(Y_k^2)\left(1+2\sum_{j=3}^\infty \frac{(tc_ns_n)^{j-2}}{j!}\right) \leq 1+ \frac{t^2\sigma_k^2}{2} \left(1+2tc_ns_n\sum_{j=3}^\infty \frac{1}{j!}\right). $$
- After proving $(\star)$ he claimed that by Markov's inequality one has $$\mathbb P \left(\sum_{k=1}^n Y_k > xs_n\right) \leq \frac{\psi_n(t)}{e^{txs_n}}.$$ How to see this, please? Thank you!
Indeed, since we do not have the condition $|Y_k|\leqslant c_ns_n$ almost surely, it is not a direct application of the result. We can deduce the estimate directly from estimates on the normal distribution or apply the result to truncated random variables.
The inequality is valid if $tc_ns_n\leqslant 1$, noticing that $0\leqslant (tc_ns_n)^{j-2}\leqslant tc_ns_n$ if $j\geqslant 3$ (($\star$) cannot be valid for very large).
Notice that for $t\gt 0$, $$\sum_{k=1}^nY_k>xs_n\Leftrightarrow t\sum_{k=1}^nY_k>txs_n \Leftrightarrow \exp\left(t\sum_{k=1}^nY_k\right)>\exp(txs_n).$$