Suppose that we flip a fair coin and we win when we get for a first time HTH.Is there a way that we can construct a markov model with 4 states ??
2026-04-04 09:47:02.1775296022
Markov Model for coin flips
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Let the set of states be $\{I,H, HT, W\}$. The transitions are as follows:
And the system starts in $I$.
This is a deterministic machine if we don't consider that the inputs are heads and tails with equal probability. Taking this into account then we can tell that every state transition takes place with probability $\frac12, \frac12$ from the actual state to the two allowed next states. Based on this the state transition probability matrix can be written up.