Maximum probability of sum occurring in a dice(s) roll in such a way

253 Views Asked by At

One fair die is rolled: let 'x' denote the number that comes up. We then roll 'x' dice(s), and let the sum of the resulting numbers be 'y'. Finally, roll 'y' dice(s) and let 'z' be the sum of the resulting 'y' numbers. Let the expected value of 'z' be 'a', we have to find 'a'.

=================================================================== My approach:-

for 'x' all numbers have same probability of occurring after that if we consider cases for 'y':

1 dice roll

2 dice(s) roll.. .

.

6 dice(s) roll

and sum up the possibilities we get something like this

sum expected probability(out of $6^7$)

1 7776

2 9072

3 10584

4 12348

5 14406

6 16807

7 11832

8 12507

9 13076

10 13482

11 13650

12 13482

13 12852

14 12897

15 12772

16 12453

17 11928

18 11207

19 10332

20 9387

21 8292

22 7101

23 5880

24 4697

25 3612

26 2667

27 1876

28 1251

29 786

30 462

31 252

32 126

33 56

34 21

35 6

36 1

6 is having maximum probability i.e. 16807 and then 'y'=6.

and we know that if we roll 6 dice(s) then the probability of sum that is maximum is 21

so 'z' should be 21 but this is not the answer can someone suggest any different approach

1

There are 1 best solutions below

4
On

Call $x^*$ the outcome of the first dice. Then we throw $x^*$ independent dies whose outcome is $x_i$ and we call $y^*=\sum_{i=1}^{x^*}x_i$. Finally, we throw $y^*$ independent dices whose outcome is $y_i$ and we call $z=\sum_{i=1}^{y^*}y_i$. We are looking for $\mathbb{E}(z)$. So, we can do this using the Law of Iterated Expectations (LIE), as follows: $$\mathbb{E}(z)=\mathbb{E}\bigg(\sum_{i=1}^{y^*}y_i\bigg)=\mathbb{E}(\mathbb{E}(y_1+\dots+y_{y^*}\mid y^*))=\mathbb{E}(y^*\mathbb{E}(y_i))=\frac{21}{6}\mathbb{E}(y^*)$$ Where the second to last equality follows from the fact that each throw is independent and identically distributed, so $y^*$ determines the number of throws but not the outcome of each of them. To finish the problem then we can proceed again using the LIE as follows: $$\mathbb{E}(z)=\frac{21}{6}\mathbb{E}(y^*)=\frac{21}{6}\mathbb{E}\bigg(\sum_{i=1}^{x^*}x_i\bigg)=\frac{21}{6}\mathbb{E}(\mathbb{E}(x_1+\dots+x_{x^*}\mid x^*))=\frac{21}{6}\mathbb{E}(x^*\mathbb{E}(x_i))=\bigg(\frac{21}{6}\bigg)^3$$