The initial probability of each door being the winner is 0.1 for door 1, 0.2 for door 2, 0.3 for door 3, and 0.4 for door 4. The formula for solving each conditional probability involves an application of the general Bayesian formula: for example, substituting A, B, C, and D for doors l–4, respectively, the conditional probability of A being the winner, when the contestant initially picks A and the host opens doors b and d can be determined by the formula:
I woould like someone explain, step by step, how I can use the formula to achieve the result in yellow (sticking - conditional probability). I am doing something wrong.