This is for a game, where a research project has an increasing probability of finishing, which is challenged at regular intervals.
A project has a maximum duration. Every 12 minutes we roll a number between zero and the remaining duration. If that number is smaller than a specific static value, the project finishes.
I'd like to inform the player of the expected average duration, but I have no idea where to start and failed to find similar examples. Any help would be appreciated.