I have tried to solve this exercise from Fundamentals of statistical and thermal physics-Frederick Reif, but the answer of item (3) gives me 0.201, and according to the author the solution is 0.040.
Consider a game in which six true dice are rolled. Find the probability of obtaining:
- exactly one ace
- a least one ace
- exactly two aces
I tried this:
The probability that a given obtained an ace is 1/6, then the probability that an ace will not get is 5/6.
- Thus, the probability $P_s$ that a configuration with exactly one ace on six dice has been obtained is: $$ P_s=\left(\frac 16\right)\left(\frac 56\right)^5, $$ If exist $ m $ configurations with equal probability of occurrence, which satisfy the proposition, then the event will have a probability $ P $ given by: $$ P=m\left(\frac 16\right)\left(\frac 56\right)^5, $$ The number $ m $ of configurations is given by the binomial distribution as follows: $$ m=\begin{pmatrix} 6\\1 \end{pmatrix}= \frac{6!}{1!5!}=6, $$ therefore $$ P=\frac{5^5}{6^5}\approx0.402.\qquad\checkmark $$
- Let M be the event that at least one ace is obtained, let $ M ^ c $ its complement, ie the event that no ace is not obtained; then it must be met: $$ P(M)=1-P(M^c), $$ but $\displaystyle P(M^c)=\begin{pmatrix} 6\\6 \end{pmatrix}\frac{5^6}{6^6}$, therefore: $$ P(M)=1-\frac{5^6}{6^6}\approx 0.6651.\qquad \checkmark $$
- Similarly to item (1) the probability $P$ of getting exactly 2 as is given by: $$ P= =\begin{pmatrix} 6\\2 \end{pmatrix}\left(\frac 16\right)^2\left(\frac 56\right)^4=0.201\not=0.040. $$
Comment: Here is a simulation of a million repetitions of the experiment, verifying that the probability is $0.201 \pm 0.0008.$
The histogram below shows the simulated distribution of the number of Aces in six rolls. (Approximate answers to Parts 1 and 2 can also be read from the histogram.)