I am looking for a formula to calculate this problem: If you roll a dice n times and you get y times the number one, how is the probability in try 8 in consideration of the prevois results?
Here an example:
| 1 2 3 4 5 6 (dice)
------------------------------------
1 | - - - - x -
2 | - - x - - -
3 | - x - - - -
4 | x - - - - -
5 | - - - - - x
6 | x - - - - -
7 | - - - x - -
8 | ?
P(AuB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AnB) is not correct, or?
Dice rolls are statistically independent. "Previous outcomes" are irrelevant when calculating the expected outcomes on roll 8. Thus the probability of each number appearing on roll 8 is the same, and equal to 1/6.