Probability exponential RV belongs to interval $[n, n+1]$ with $n$ odd

251 Views Asked by At

Let $X$ be an exponential random variable with parameter $\lambda > 0$. Calculate the probability that $X$ belongs to the interval $[n,n+1]$ with $n$ odd.

From the solution (Q1) I see we need to sum over all odd $n$ but I'm confused as to why the answer doesn't depend on $n$? Surely as $n \rightarrow \infty $ the probability falls to $0$ and is different than for small $n$?

Any help on my misunderstanding appreciated.

1

There are 1 best solutions below

2
On BEST ANSWER

The solution you link to is way too complicated. I'm surprised that this is the solution suggested in an MIT course. It teaches you to perform a mechanical calculation instead of applying an idea.

The map $x\to x+1$ is a bijection from the non-negative reals with even integer part to those with odd integer part. The probability density at $x+1$ is $\mathrm e^{-\lambda}$ times the density at $x$. It follows that the integral of the density over the non-negative reals with odd integer part is $\mathrm e^{-\lambda}$ times the integral over those with even integer part. Thus, if we denote the probability to obtain an even integer part by $p_\text e$ and the probability to obtain an odd integer part by $p_\text o$, we have $p_\text o=\mathrm e^{-\lambda}p_\text e$. Since $p_\text o+p_\text e=1$, it follows that

\begin{eqnarray*} p_\text e&=&\frac1{1+\mathrm e^{-\lambda}}\;,\\ p_\text o&=&\frac{\mathrm e^{-\lambda}}{1+\mathrm e^{-\lambda}}\;.\\ \end{eqnarray*}

(As clarified in the comments, there's no dependence on $n$ because the intended interpretation is “any interval” instead of “the interval”).