I'm trying to figure out what kind of probability function would be appropriate for the following problem (my goal is to program this in Python, for what its worth).
Consider a snake, and the number of molts it has in one year as a juvenile. On average, it molts bi-monthly. The probabilty of molting right after a molt ~0%, and increases slowly up to the bi-monthly point, where I'd expect the mean to be, and some to molt within a month after that.
I envision something like the probit model, but not sure if thats something I can draw random numbers from?
I am looking to throw this into a simulation, so something I can draw some sort of random number from to determine a "YesMolt", "NoMolt" each day for the snake.
Does that make sense?