Sorry if this is a duplicate, or this is the wrong place! Statistics isn't really one of my stronger points.
I have a problem I'm trying to solve, but can't get my head around it. I have a pool of unknown size, but that is fairly large (up to millions of unknown objects), and I'm interested in knowing the probability of pulling out a specific object (which may or not be present), without replacement. I'm sampling from the pool in batches of 10000, and I'd also like to know the probability the object isn't present, as a measure of confidence.
I've been reading about the hypergeometric distribution, but as far as I can tell it assumes you know what's in the sample pool. I think this question is close to what I want - hypergeometric distribution - expected number of draws until k successes are drawn
But I'm not really sure! Any help or indication of what I should be reading about would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks!