I have aquestion:
Which is more likely to happen: flipping a coin 10 times in a 10 minute period and getting heads each time OR flipping a coin 10 times but over a period of 10 years and getting heads each time? The flipping itself takes the same amount of time. But it is the interval between flips that differed between scenarios.
I am not in math. I have some knowledge of bio-statistics. Thank you!
2026-04-22 19:24:35.1776885875
Probability over different time spans
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Assuming the coin is unaffected by the passage of time, both events have probability $2^{-10} \approx 0.001$.
The above also assumes that the coin is fair: the probability of heads is the same as that of tails. If the probability of flipping heads was instead $p$, we would have $p^{10}$ for both events instead.