I'm at a gathering with 100 participants.
They have a drawing and hand out 30 individual prizes to 30 individual participants.
Those 30 people exit with their prizes, leaving behind 70 participants that have won nothing.
Over the next hour, 200 more participants join the non-winners.
Now a second drawing is held for the 270 people present.
At the second drawing 50 individual prizes are handed out.
After the second drawing, there are 220 people that have still won nothing.
The odds that one of the original 100 went home with a first round prize is 30%.
What are the odds that one of the original 100 people went home with a second round prize?
What are the odds that one of the original 100 went home with any prize, first or second round?