I'm looking for a proof that $\text{erfc}(x)\leqslant e^{-x^2}$ without invoking any probability theory.
Some sources say this inequality is a result of the "Chernoff bound," which seems to come from probability theory. But in principle this inequality is about real-valued functions and should not require any reference to probability theory.
Is there a simple way to prove this?
For $x \ge 0$ one can substitute $t = x+s$ in the integral: $$ \operatorname{erfc}(x) = \frac{2}{\sqrt \pi} \int_x^\infty e^{-t^2} \, dt = \frac{2}{\sqrt \pi} \int_0^\infty e^{-(x+s)^2} \, ds \\ = \frac{2}{\sqrt \pi} e^{-x^2 }\int_0^\infty e^{-2xs}e^{-s^2} \, ds \le \frac{2}{\sqrt \pi} e^{-x^2 }\int_0^\infty e^{-s^2} \, ds \\ = e^{-x^2 }\operatorname{erfc}(0) = e^{-x^2 } $$
For $x< 0$ the estimate does not hold because then $e^{-x^2} < 1 < \operatorname{erfc}(x)$.