Represent probability with multiple distributions. Archer shooting bullseyes problem.

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The goal is to come up with two ways to represent this probability:

An archer shoots a bulls-eye with probability $0.4$. If the archer shoots ten arrows, what's the probability that at least 3 are bullseyes?

The first representation I came up with is $X\sim$binomial$(10,0.4)$. To find the probability, I did $1-F(2)$.

What other distributions can be used to represent this question? I suspect the Negative binomial may work, but I can't seem to get the computations to match up.

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OK, I think I understand your question now.

As you guessed, you can use the negative binomial:

Let $Y_i\sim Geometric(0.4)$ is the number of shots to get one bulls eye.

Then $Z=Y_1+Y_2+Y_3\sim NegBinom(3,0.4)$

Then, you want to know $P(Z\leq 10)$

From Excel, the $P(Z\leq 10)$ is the probability of getting 0 to 7 failures and three successes, which give a probability of $83.2\%$ whcih is the same as $1-F_X(2)$ for $X\sim binomial(10,0.4)$