I am given a biased coin, which I'm told will give Heads with a probability of "about" $p$ (prior probability?).
Now if I flip the coin $n$ times and get $h$ Heads, is there a simple formula to give me a revised estimate of the probability $p$ (posterior probability?) according to Bayes theorem?
Presumably, the more times I flip the coin (the greater is $n$), the greater the potential change in my estimate of $p$, but I'm not sure how to calculate this.
Any help would be much appreciated, thanks.