I am trying to simulate the probability that an $M/M/1/3$ system will get full during its first n time units, meaning arrival and service times are exponential and here they are exp with mean $1.$
I also know that $X=0$ in the beginning.
My approach strategy is to just simulate say, $10000$ times and just use the amount of times that the system became full/(amount of repetitions).
Code:
succ=0;
sumsucc=1;
X=0;
reps=10000;
for i =1:reps
T=0; %We start in the beginning, time is zero
X=0; %The queue starts out empty
while T<=3
if X==0 %if no customers, a customers arrives a exp(1) time later!
T=exprnd(1);
X=1;
continue %moves on to next iteration of loop
end
if X==1
rand1=exprnd(1);rand2=exprnd(1);
if rand1<rand2
X=0; T=T+rand1;
else
X=2; T=T+rand2;
end
continue
end
if X==2 %if there is 1 or 2 in system, competition between to random exp begins, rand 1 is service time, rand 2 is arrival time. First wins moves on to correpsonding place
rand1=exprnd(1);rand2=exprnd(1);
if rand1<rand2
X=1; T=T+rand1;
else
X=3; T=T+rand2;
end
continue
end
if X==3 %if three, moves down and 1 successful event is added to "sumsucc"
sumsucc=sumsucc+1;
T=T+exprnd(1);
X=2;
break
end
end
end
sumsucc/reps %should give me right answer.
Now, the expected answer is $0.268.$ Something is wrong.