What is the expected time at which a random variable under a Poisson distribution will reach a certain number k?

147 Views Asked by At

People normally talk about the expected number of occurrences (k) for a fixed time λ, which is given as E(k) = λ. I would like to know the inverse: for a fixed number of occurrences, what is thr expected time E(λ) in which it will be reached?

I tried using the integral formula for the expected value and got an improper integral represented by the gamma function, but I don't know if that's correct.

2

There are 2 best solutions below

0
On

For a homogeneous Poisson process with intensity $\lambda$, the random variable that describes the number of events observed in an interval of length $t$ is $$X(t) \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(\lambda t), \\ \Pr[X(t) = x] = e^{-\lambda t} \frac{(\lambda t)^x}{x!}, \quad x \in \{0, 1, 2, \ldots \}. \tag{1}$$ The random variable that describes the event time of the $x^{\rm th}$ event is $$T(x) \sim \operatorname{Gamma}(x, \lambda), \\ f_{T(x)}(t) = \frac{\lambda^x t^{x-1} e^{-\lambda t}}{\Gamma(x)}, \quad t > 0. \tag{2}$$ The reason the event time is gamma distributed is because the interarrival time between consecutive events is exponentially distributed with rate $\lambda$; thus, the $x^{\rm th}$ event time is the sum of $x$ IID exponential random variables, which is gamma with shape $x$ and rate $\lambda$.

Therefore, the expected time of the $x^{\rm th}$ event is simply $\operatorname{E}[T(x)] = x/\lambda$.

0
On

You don’t need to know the gamma distribution of the sum of exponential variables to find this expectation. By the linearity of expectation, this is just $k$ times the expected waiting time for a single event.