What is the expected value of the number of heart cards given that I roll a 3?

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Suppose I roll a die and then draw that many cards from a deck without replacement. What is the expected value of the number of heart cards given that I roll a 3?


So I had this idea of doing:

  • X=number obtained on the die

  • Y=number of hearts

$E(Y|X=3)= \sum_{y=1}^{3}yP_{(y|x)}(Y|X=3)=6$

Since from my understanding $$ P_{(y|x)}(Y|X=3)=\frac{P(y\bigcap x=3)}{P(x=3)}=\frac{P( x=3)}{P(x=3)}=1$$

I have no way to check that if anyone spots an error or would like to find me a better way of doing it that would be awesome.

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Guide:

Given that you are drawing $3$ cards,

  • Probability of getting no heart is $\frac{39 \cdot 38 \cdot 37}{52 \cdot 51 \cdot 50}$

  • Probability of getting a heart is $3 \cdot \frac{39 \cdot 38\cdot 13}{52 \cdot 51 \cdot 50} $

  • Probability of getting $3$ hearts is $\frac{13\cdot 12 \cdot 11}{52\cdot 51 \cdot50}$

Can you compute the expected value given these info?