I am one of the three candidates for an award given to 2 people. Am I right in thinking that My chances of winning an award is 2/3? Because if so, the other two also has 2/3 chances of winning and that adds up to 2. That doesn't make sense to me.... please help!! :(
Also, this is a modified Monty Hall problem but if I know somebody on the committee to tell me who the other winner is other than myself, then my chances of winning will reduce from 2/3 to 1/2. Is this thinking correct? I am super confused about this Monty Hall problem and would appreciate any help from you guys.!