Which scenario gives you more chances to win, assuming that the results of each match are independent?

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You are to play three matches, and you have to win two consecutive matches our of those three. There are two scenarios in which you can play:

  • against a champion, against a friend, then against a champion
  • against a friend, against a champion, then against a friend.

If the results of each match are independent, which scenario gives you better chances of winning two consecutive matches?