4% per turn * (over the course of) 25 turns.
e.g. 1 Person $\alpha$ let's call him bob.
Bob a 4% chance of winning something every day for 25 days. Whats the chance of him winning? (about 100%?)
e.g 2 Now in this example I'm almost sure the equation would be different. There is a group of 5 teams, each team has 4% chance of x over 25 turns/days. what is the chance for x to happen to any team?
If we are talking about risks and probabilities. Are the above calculations as simple as I'm thinking it is? If so\not what are the rules of thumb? is there a wiki page a layperson like myself can read. (I have a year ~10 High School education(australia)) I like to think i'm somewhat well educated for someone who didn't complete high school.(now 24yo)
The reason I ask Is that I was under the impression that when dealing with probability calculations like this, something as simple as this can become somewhat more complex?
I'm just thinking that this might not stack the way I'm seeing it. This isn't for a test (doesn't need to be perfect\scored) and i'm not risking my or anyone else's life on the calculations. It's just for some original research \ private project \ curiosity.
If someone can point me in the right direction, like a wiki page for math mortals like myself, I would appreciate it a ton! If not, when I find the answer i'll update with more details for google and on-site search.