$(X_n), n \in \mathbb{N}$ is a stochastic process.
I saw in one definition of Martingale that $$E [X_{n+1} |X_0 , X_1 , . . . , X_n ] = X_n \quad a.s., \forall n \geq 0.$$
- I understand what "almost surely" itself means. But I was wondering how to interpret the above usage of "almost surely" in the definition of Martingale? Are $X_0 , X_1 , . . . , X_n$ seen as random variables or their given deterministic values?
- Plus, I don't see the definition of Martingale on its Wikipedia article relies on "almost surely". Is it really required?
Thanks and regards!
This is because conditional expectations can only be defined up to almost sure events.
Recall that $Z=E[X|Y]$ is defined as any random variable $Z$ such that (1) $Z$ is $\sigma(Y)$-measurable, and (2) $E[Z\varphi(Y)]=E[X\varphi(Y)]$ for every bounded measurable function $\varphi$. Hence, if $Z$ fulfills (1) and (2) and $P(Z'=Z)=1$, then $Z'$ fulfills (1) and (2) as well and $Z$ and $Z'$ have an equal right to be called $E[X|Y]$.
To sum up, $E[X|Y]$ may be seen as a whole class of random variables, each one equal to any other up to a null event.