My question is based on this question. But I have stated it with some simplifications.
Assume there is an city where some bad people are dropping bombs. A survey reported that each square kilometre of the area gets $1$ bomb dropped everyday.
A person on an unlucky day reports that in their area there were $6$ bombs dropped on that day. Now first we had to calculate the probability of this happening which I conveniently did using the Poisson distribution.
Next the question asked whether this particular event was a coincidence or not a coincidence. I am not comfortable with the word coincidence, so I switch it for the word chance. Then I ask, was the unfortunate event by chance?
Now I think that it is a very low probability event. And one could say that the enemy was targeting that area and thus intentionally dropped more bombs there. Or probably the bomb launching system had a systematic error and due to which more than average bombs were dropped there. And one would suspect that this was an event not by chance. It was schematic.
My question is would one be wrong in following this argument and concluding that the event were not by chance and thus not a coincidence?
I understand from a comment on the linked question that the event follows a binomial distribution, but as long as the numbers are close enough my question is the same.