I'm trying to work out a formula to calculate the expected number of goals in a soccer match, using only odds data provided by a bookmaker:
> Home team: 3.4 (29.4%)
> Away Team: 2.3 (43.4%)
> Draw: 3.65 (27.3%)
>
> Over 2.5 goals: 1.88 (53.1%)
> Under 2.5 goals: 2.1 (47.6%)
I have put these numbers into an online calculator, and gotten the following results:
> Average home goals: 1.25
> Average away goals: 1.574
> Average total goals: 2.824
I can't understand how this is calculated though - any insight would be appreciated!