I have a 2 sided fair penny, if I flip heads 4 times in a row I win 10 dollars but it costs 1 dollar to play, should I play the game?
Is the answer no because $(10/2^4)-1$ is negative?
I have a 2 sided fair penny, if I flip heads 4 times in a row I win 10 dollars but it costs 1 dollar to play, should I play the game?
Is the answer no because $(10/2^4)-1$ is negative?
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Your win/lose analysis goes like this:
Win probability is
(0.5)^4and you'll have $10Lose probability is
1-(0.5)^4and it costs you $4So your expected value goes like this:
To put it in plain English, you will lose, on average,
$3.125for every$4you will invest so if you came with a$400to play 100 games, you will likely to leave with$87.5.