Suppose $X=X(\alpha)$ is a sequence of non-negative continuous random variables indexed by a continuous parameter $\alpha$ such that $\alpha$ is in $[0,\alpha_0)$ for some finite positive $\alpha_0$.
Throughout, let $\alpha\uparrow \alpha_0$ denote convergence to $\alpha_0$ from the left. Let $Y(\alpha)$ denote $(\alpha_0-\alpha)X(\alpha)$.
The following facts are known about $X(\cdot)$:
- $X(\alpha_0)=+\infty$ a.s.
- $Y(\alpha) \rightarrow 1$ in probability as $\alpha \uparrow \alpha_0$.
- $E(X(\alpha))<+\infty$, $Var(X(\alpha))<+\infty$ for all $\alpha$ in $[0,\alpha_0)$.
- $E(Y(\alpha))\rightarrow 1$ as $\alpha \uparrow \alpha_0$.
- $Var(Y(\alpha))\rightarrow 0$ as $\alpha \uparrow \alpha_0$.
Note that 4.-5. imply 2.
Question: Is evidence 1.-5. sufficient to claim that $X(\alpha)\rightarrow+\infty$ in probability as $\alpha \uparrow \alpha_0$?
If yes, will the stronger fact be also valid that $X(\alpha)\rightarrow+\infty$ a.s. as $\alpha \uparrow \alpha_0$?
The answer to the first part of the question is that statement 2 on its own suffices to show the convergence in probability of $X(\alpha)$ to $\infty$ as $\alpha \to \alpha_0$ :
$Y(\alpha) \to 1$ in probability as $\alpha\to\alpha_0$ says that $(\alpha_0 - \alpha)X(\alpha) \to 1$ in probability, so we have
$$\mathbb{P}\left(\frac{1}{2} < (\alpha_0 - \alpha).X(\alpha) < \frac{3}{2}\right) \to 1, \;\text{as}\; \alpha\to\alpha_0.$$
Then for any $M>0$ we can find $\alpha_1 \in [0, \alpha_0)$ so that for all $\alpha \geq \alpha_1$: $M\leq \frac{1/2}{\alpha_0 - \alpha}$.
Putting this together we have
$$ \forall M>0: \mathbb{P}\left( M < X(\alpha) \right) \geq \mathbb{P}\left( \frac{1/2}{\alpha_0 - \alpha_1} < X(\alpha) \right) \geq \mathbb{P}\left( \frac{1/2}{\alpha_0 - \alpha} < X(\alpha) \right) \to 1$$