Creating a bad outcome as a bookie?

84 Views Asked by At

I found this question from Ian Hacking's book on induction and probability. I understand that a Dutch Book is a gambling term wherein every outcome results in the bookie (us) winning. Although, the last part of the question 'Describe a Dutch Book for Paolo' is confusing. How is this prediction one where everyone wins?

Paolo has fallen for the famous “bank-teller” fallacy. His personal
degree of confidence that Sara is a bank teller is $\dfrac15$, but his
personal degree of confidence that she’s a feminist bank-teller is
$\dfrac14.$ Describe a Dutch Book for Paolo.