Distribution to model reply time

57 Views Asked by At

I have recently gathered a large amount of data, representing the time elapsed (in seconds) between two consecutive comments on the same post of a social network website.

I want to find a probability distribution giving a close approximation of these results. I was initially thinking that a geometric distribution would be the best, but the distribution of this data looks as follows (only pictured up to 60, but it goes much farther):

enter image description here

I have looked into several other distributions (beta, gamma, poisson, exponential...), but I can't seem to make them fit these results, even approximately.

What kind of distribution should I be looking into to model this situation?

EDIT: I can't really access MatLab, but I do have RStudio. Using fitdistr from the MASS package, a Weibull fit gives me parameters of 0.41501 and 69.57486, which seems quite bad here (orange = fit): enter image description here

The gamma fit fails entirely during the gradient computing phase.

R summary:

  Min.   1st Qu.    Median      Mean   3rd Qu.      Max. 
  1.0       6.0      13.0     488.2      57.0 1716000.0

  stddev    Q90%    Q99%
  6364.06   435     10113.24