Expected number of record highs in an iid sequence of discrete uniform random variables

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Let X1,X2,X3... be an endless sequence of random variables, uniformly distributed on the set {1,2,3....10}. Index i will be called "King" if X_i is greater than all of the numbers before it in the sequence. Calculate the expected value of the number of indices that are to be crowned Kings.

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4
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This problem can be modeled using an absorbing Markov chain. Let $\{Y_n:n\geqslant 1\}$ be defined by $Y_1$ uniformly distributed over $\{1,\ldots,10\}$ and for $n\geqslant 1$: $$ \mathbb P(Y_{n+1}=j\mid Y_n=i)=\begin{cases} \frac1{10-i},& i<j\leqslant 10\\ 1,& i=j=10. \end{cases} $$ Let $P$ be the transition matrix of this Markov chain, then $$P=\pmatrix{Q&R\\0&I} $$ where $Q$ is the substochastic matrix corresponding to transitions between transient states, $R$ that corresponding to transitions from a transient state to an absorbing state, and $I$ that corresponding to transitions between absorbing states. (Here we have only one absorbing state.) For pair of transient states $i,j$ the probability of transitioning from $i$ to $j$ in exactly $k$ steps is the $(i,j)$ entry of $Q^k$. Summing for all $k$ yields the fundamental matrix $$ N = \sum_{k=0}Q^k. $$ Since the rows of $Q$ sum to strictly less than one, the Neumann series converges and we have $N=(I-Q)^{-1}$, with $I$ the identity matrix. The expected number of transitions until being absorbed starting in transient state $i$ is the $i^{\mathsf{th}}$ entry of the vector $t=N\cdot\mathbf 1$, where $\mathbf 1$ is a column vector whose entries are all one. Here $$ t=\left( \begin{array}{c} \frac{9649}{2520} \\ \frac{1041}{280} \\ \frac{503}{140} \\ \frac{69}{20} \\ \frac{197}{60} \\ \frac{37}{12} \\ \frac{17}{6} \\ \frac{5}{2} \\ 2 \\ \end{array} \right), $$ and since the initial distribution was uniform over $\{1,\ldots,10\}$, we weight each of these entries, along with $1$ (for the case when $X_1=10$), by $\frac1{10}$ and sum to obtain $$\frac{7381}{2520}. $$

0
On

A term whose index is what you call a "king" is ordinarily called a record, so you are asking for the expected number of records in an iid sequence of Uniform$\{1,...,m\}$ random variables, e.g. with $m=10$. (This assumes the terms are mutually independent.)

Shorter derivation

The probability that the $k$th distinct term is a record is ${1\over k},$ and the number of records in the infinite sequence can be written as the sum of indicators $$\begin{align}\sum_{k=1}^m \mathbb{1}_{\text{$k$th distinct term is a record}} \end{align}$$

so the expected number of records in the infinite sequence is

$$\begin{align} E\left(\sum_{k=1}^m \mathbb{1}_{\text{$k$th distinct term is a record}} \right)&=\sum_{i=1}^m E(\mathbb{1}_{\text{$k$th distinct term is a record}})\\[2ex] &=\sum_{k=1}^m{1\over k}\\[2ex] &=H_m \end{align}$$

where $H_m=\sum_{k=1}^m{1\over k}$ is the $m$th harmonic number. (E.g., $H_{10}={7381\over 2520}$.)

Longer derivation

The probability that the $i$th term is a record is $$\begin{align}P_i&=\sum_{k=1}^mP((X_i=k)\cap(X_{j}< k \text{ for all }j<i)) \\[2ex] &=\sum_{k=1}^m{1\over m}\left({k-1\over m}\right)^{i-1} \end{align}$$ and the number of records in the infinite sequence can be written as the sum of indicators $$\begin{align}\sum_{i=1}^\infty \mathbb{1}_{\text{$X_i$ is a record}} \end{align}$$

so the expected number of records in the infinite sequence is

$$\begin{align} E\left(\sum_{i=1}^\infty 1_{\text{$X_i$ is a record}}\right)&=\sum_{i=1}^\infty E(1_{\text{$X_i$ is a record}})\\[2ex] &=\sum_{i=1}^\infty P_i\\[2ex] &=\sum_{i=1}^\infty\sum_{k=1}^m{1\over m}\left({k-1\over m}\right)^{i-1}\\[2ex] &= {1\over m}\sum_{i=1}^\infty\sum_{k=1}^m\left({k-1\over m}\right)^{i-1}\\[2ex] &={1\over m}\sum_{k=1}^m\sum_{i=1}^\infty\left({k-1\over m}\right)^{i-1}\\[2ex] &={1\over m}\sum_{k=1}^m{m\over m-k+1}\\[2ex] &={1\over m}(m\cdot \sum_{j=1}^m{1\over j})\\[2ex] &=H_m. \end{align}$$

4
On

Given an infinite sequence of uniform draws from {1,...,10}, since we are only counting records, there is nothing changed by deleting any draw that is equal to a previous draw -- the number of records will be the same.

The edited sequence is finite, and with probability 1, is a linear ordering of {1,...,10} (since the probability is $0$ that any value is omitted in the original infinite sequence). By iid uniform, all $10!$ such orderings are equally likely .

Looking at a random ordering of {1,...10}, the expected number of (left-to-right) records in location $j$ is $1/j$, since among the first $j$ entries, each one of them is equally likely to be the maximum among them.

Using linearity of expectation the expected number of records in the original sequence will be $1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + .... + 1/10$.