If I have have a betting line at a value of 800 receiving yards for a NFL player that has implied probabilities of 50% for the over and 50% for the under, the expected receiving yards is 800 for these bets.
I am unsure on what the expected receiving yards for a line with odds that aren't 50/50
For example: Betting line of 1000 receiving yards for a player with a 45% over, and a 55% under.
My gut says to multiply the receiving yards by .95 since its 5% away and the expected value of these bettors is 950 yards.
Or to multiply it by .9 (.45 * 2). But I am completely void of trying to find any logic behind these.