Gambling question: multiply quotes.

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Reading various betting forum I came across different threads claiming betting multiple is worse than betting on single events.

Could you explain why?

[Clairification for the ones not familiar with betting: Betting on a single event: predict the outcome of a single match. Betting on multiple events: predict the outcome of multiple matches, you win only if you guess correctly the outcome of all the events, even if you only make one mistake you win nothing.]

I think that the key point is the commission taken by bookmakers on each match (they take something like 5% on every bet).

For example if you bet 100dollars on a tennis match where each player has P(win) = 0.5, You will win something like 195 instead of 200, due to commissions.

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Assuming the outcomes of all the matches are independent, with $p_k$ being the probability of a favorable outcome of the $k^{th}$ match, for matches numbered $1$ to $n$. Then probability of favourable outcomes occurring in all matched will be:$$P_{\text{all}}=\prod\limits_{k=1}^n p_k$$

Since $0\leq p_j\leq 1$ for all $j$, then it follows that: $p_k\geq \prod\limits_{j=1}^n p_j$ for all k.

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I'm afraid you're wrong. Betting on multiple events is worse. This happens because of the commissions. I will try to explain it with numbers and not with formulas, because it's easier to be understood.

Assume you want to bet on 2 events with P(win)=0.5. Initially you have €100.

Case 1: No commissions:

Case 1a: Betting on single events:

1st event: You bet €100. You win. You win €100. You get €100.You have €200

2nt event: You bet €200. You win. You win €200. You get €200.You have €400

Case 1b: Betting on multiple events:

You bet €100. You win. You win €300. You get €300. You have €400.

The result is the same.

Case 2: With commissions: (assuming commission is 5%)

First of all, you have to know that the commissions are a percentage of your winnings. This means if you bet €1000 and you win €10, you will be charged the same as if you had bet €1 and you had won €10.

Case 2a: Bettins on single events:

1st event: You bet €100. You win. You win €100. Commission is 100*0.05=€5.You get €95. You have €195.

2st event: You bet €195. You win. You win €195. Commission is 195*0.05=€9,75.You get €185,25. You have €380,25.

Case 2b: Betting on multiple events:

You bet €100. You win. You win €300. Commission is 300*0.05=€15.You get €285. You have €385.