So in this instance I have a standard deck of 52 cards and am playing a high/low game with it (ie turn over the top card, guess if the next card is higher or lower) and maintain a record of all the cards used.
Each guess has an easily calculable chance of being either higher or lower. IE if you draw an 8 for a first cards it's 50% chance that it's higher, and 50% chance that it's lower and a ~5% chance it's another 8 which counts as a "win" regardless of your choice of high or low.
What I don't know how to calculate:
The odds that you will successfully win this game getting all 51 guesses correct strictly guessing the most probable choice.
Any solution I come up with would be different for every game and relies on the cards already drawn. I want to know this probability before even starting a game.
Edit: Additional info:
- Suits don't matter
- Ties are wins.
- Aces are high
Assuming a total order (i.e. break ties with suits), because it's simpler, and also assuming that you reshuffle the cards every time, putting the last flipped card back in (so we get independence).
When $n$ cards are left, your chances of winning are $\sum_{k=0}^{n-1} \frac{\max(k,n-k-1)}{n-1}$. For $n = 2m$ even this is $\frac{1}{2m}\cdot2\sum_{k=0}^{m-1} \frac{2m-k-1}{2m-1} = \frac{3m-1}{4m-2}$. For $n = 2m+1$ odd, this is $\frac{1}{2m+1}(\frac{1}{2} + 2\sum_{k=0}^{m-1} \frac{2m-k}{2m}) = \frac{3m+2}{4m+2}$.
Therefore the answer is $\prod_{m=1}^{26} \frac{3m-1}{4m-2} \prod_{m=1}^{25} \frac{3m+2}{4m+2} \approx 1.6 \times 10^{-6}$.
The answer to yours will be lower, because outliers make it easier to keep winning, but you're less likely to have gotten one if you just won.
Your set up is complicated enough that I would just Monte Carlo it (i.e. run a computer simulation).