How to calculate probability that I will encounter full barbershop when I go for a cut?

63 Views Asked by At

Let's say for example that you want to get a fresh cut. I am eeger to know how could one calculate probability that barbershop will be full? What are the parameters that should be looked. I don't need anything concrete, just wanted to know what are the possible approaches? I was thinking of maybe Poisson stochastic process, but I think it doesn't fully fit the story.

1

There are 1 best solutions below

0
On

First of all, you would have to define a sample of possible barbershops. Maybe calculate the number of barbershops within walking distance. You would also need to specify the maximum waiting time you would be willing to wait. Then I would suggest a calculating the probability that a barbershop will be full given a whole range of other parameters such as:

  • its capacity
  • average time for a person to have his hair cut,
  • average number of people who cut their hair in a period (could also be number of people in an area and at which intervals they go to the barbershop)

Then you could add more parameters such as the hour of the day for your search and operation hours of a barbershop. I am sure that they do not have the same load during let's say 8a.m. and 16:00. Also this could be done for different days of the week (e.g. Saturday vs Tuesday).

I would also look to somehow model a barbershop's popularity into my calculations. But if we take for granted that supply and demand for barbershops has reached an equilibrium this might not be necessary.

You could also use a Bayesian approach where as you update the aforementioned model with observations.