Let's assume that we have two buses A and B which arrive at a depot at 5:05pm and 5:10pm respectively. Thus A should arrive before B, but it might well happen that A arrives after B. I want to compute this probability, i.e. the probability that A arrives before B. In other terms, given the time difference of arrival, what is the probability they arrive in the opposite order?
How can we simply model this problem and what parameters do I need to estimate?
Thanks