Let's assume the common cyber sport game where 10 players play 5vs5. Let's say that one of them, Player 1, wins the gunfight with prob p=0.5. What is the probability that he will get an Ace (all 5 kills) in this game? My initial thought was that it would be 1/32, because he needs to win 5 times, but I have a feeling that we have to? count the chances that teammates can kill enemies too and steal your kills.
2026-03-28 16:57:00.1774717020
In 5vs5 game what is the probability to get ACE (5 kills)?
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Let the chance of Player 1 wiping out the rest of the enemy be $F(m,n)$, where $m$ men including Player 1 are alive on team $A$, and $n$ are alive on team $B$.
We want $F(5,5)$.
There is one chance in $m$ that the next fight involves Player 1, so he has to win; and $m-1$ chances in $m$ that someone else is, in which case the player on team $A$ has to die.
$$F(m,n)=\frac1{2m}\left(F(m,n-1)+(m-1)F(m-1,n)\right)$$
The boundary cases are $F(m,0)=1$.
My calculations give
$$\frac1{16}\left(\frac1{2^5}+\frac4{4^5}+\frac6{6^5}+\frac4{8^5}+\frac1{10^5}\right)$$ or about one in 443.7