In the card game, Ride the Bus, what is the possibility of guessing the correct color, higher/ lower, in-between/ outside, and the suit all in one go?

Question

Ride the bus is a social card game, usually played by those who are partaking in alcoholic beverages.

During this game, a whole deck of cards is used.

The characteristics of a standard deck of cards is:

1. There is 52 cards in a deck.
2. There are 13 different ranks of cards, ranging from 2-10, jack, queen, king, and ace.
3. There are four different suits: spade, heart, diamond, clubs (13 of each in the deck)
4. The diamonds and hearts are printed in red, and the spades and clubs are printed in black.
5. The deck does not include any jokers.

For the Ride the Bus card game, there is no certain amount of people that are allowed to play.

There are three phases to the games. The first game consists of 4 rounds and the other two phases stand alone.

1. PHASE ONE

   • round 1: "Red or Black?"

     • The dealer goes around the table and deals each person, one at a time, a single card and they ask, "Red or Black?". If the person dealt the card guesses correctly, nothing happens. Though, if they guess incorrectly, the are prompted to take a drink.

   • round 2: "Higher or Lower?"

     -In this round, the dealer once again goes around the table and deal each person, one at a time, a single card and they ask,"Higher or Lower?". This means, does the person dealt the card think that the rank of the card just dealt higher or lower than the card dealt in the first round. Again, if the person dealt the card guesses correctly, nothing happens. Though, if they guess incorrectly, the are prompted to take a drink.

   • round 3: "In between or outside?"

     • The dealer repeats dealing to individuals one at a time, a single card. The dealer then asks, "In between or outside?". This means, does the person dealt the card think that the card's value fall between or outside of the previously two dealt card in the first and second round. Again, if the person dealt the card guesses correctly, nothing happens. Though, if they guess incorrectly, the are prompted to take a drink.

   • round 4: Last round

     • In the last round, the dealer goes around the group asking for a suit type. This gives the players a one and four chance of guessing the correct suit and not having to drink.

2. PHASE TWO

   • Players collect their four distributed cards and hold them privately. The dealer then builds a pyramid of face-down cards, with five cards at the base, four in the next row and so on until there is one card at the top. Drink values increase as you go up the pyramid, with cards on the bottom row counting for one drink each, and the single top card counting for five drinks—or one shot of liquor, if you want to up the ante.

   • Starting at the bottom row, one card is flipped at a time. Anyone who has a matching card in their hand can lay their card on top, gaining them the right to punish another player with the quantity of drinks associated with that row. Multiple cards can be laid down per row and on the same card, and the drinks earned can be distributed however the player pleases. Play continues up the pyramid.

   • Players have the option of saving their cards in the hopes they’ll be able to match them to a higher pyramid value. But it’s a risky move, as having the most cards in your hand by the end of Phase Two means you have to ride the bus.

3. PHASE 3

   • Once the pyramid cards are completely turned over and the final drinks have been distributed, players compare how many cards they have left in their hands. Ideally, they will have gotten rid of them all. More likely, they will still have cards left. The person with the highest number of cards has to ride the bus.

   • Note: In the event that two people have the same quantity of cards, the person with the highest value card in their hand has to ride the bus. If both players have matching highest cards, the loser is whoever has the next highest card.

   • The dealer lays 10 cards face down. One by one, the dealer flips a card over. If it’s a number card, nothing happens and the dealer continues to the next card. If it’s a face card or an ace, the player riding the bus has to drink: One drink for a jack, two for a queen, three for a king and four for an ace.

Information brought by: Reilly, Laura. “The Official Ride the Bus Drinking Game Rules.” Thrillist. Accessed May 4, 2022. https://www.thrillist.com/culture/ride-the-bus-drinking-game.

I know the probability of each individual round but not sure about guessing each individual correctly each time on the first try.