I'm trying to make sense of the intensity of light leaving a parabolic reflector, given that the light is a point source at the focus. (In the diagram below, this might be the intensity of light at $Q_1$ vs $Q_3$.)
For ease of discussion, say that the reflector is described by $z = \frac 14(x^2 + y^2) - 1$ with the focus at the origin.
My thinking is to instead try the two-dimensional version $y = \frac 14 x^2 - 1$. Under the assumption that the light source is equally intense in all directions, I suspect I'd start by determining where the ray intersects the parabola as a function of angle.
How do I determine the intensity of the light as a function of $r$ (in the 3D case) or $x$ (in the 2D case)? (For what it's worth, I'm only interested in the intensity of the part of the light that has been reflected.)


Let $y=ax^2$ be the equation of the parabola. Angle $\alpha=\angle VFP$ is twice the angle $\theta$ formed by the tangent at $P=(x,y)$ with $x$-axis (see figure below): $$ \tan\theta={dy\over dx}=2ax. $$ Hence: $$ {d\alpha\over dx}=2{d\theta\over dx}={4a\over1+4a^2x^2}. $$ Let's now switch to 3D, with paraboloid $z=ar^2$. The fraction of total power $P$ emitted by the source in the solid angle $d\Omega$ comprised between $\alpha$ and $\alpha+d\alpha$ is $$ dP=P{d\Omega\over4\pi}={P\over4\pi}2\pi\sin\alpha\, d\alpha. $$ This power, after reflection, is spread on the surface $dA=2\pi r\,dr$ of the annulus comprised between $r$ and $r+dr$. Hence the flux of power (a.k.a. intensity of light) is: $$ {dP\over dA}={1/2 P\sin\alpha\,d\alpha\over2\pi r\,dr}= {P\over4\pi}{\sin\alpha\over r}{d\alpha\over dr}. $$ But $d\alpha/dr$ has been computed above as $4a/(1+4a^2r^2)$ and $$ \sin\alpha=\sin2\theta={2\tan\theta\over1+\tan^2\theta}={4ar\over1+4a^2r^2}. $$ Inserting these into the preceding equation finally leads to $$ {dP\over dA}={P\over4\pi}\left({4a\over1+4a^2r^2}\right)^2. $$