Largest value of $P(X =4)$

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Consider $4$ trials each having same probability of success. Let $X$ denote the total number of successes in these trials, if $\mathbb{E}(X) = 2$, what is

A) the maximum value of $P(X =4)$

B) the minimum value of $P(X = 4)$

I don’t really know how to approach this question, all i did was say that $\mathbb{E}(X) = np = 4p =2$ Which gives $p =\frac{1}{2}$ so $P(X =4)=\frac{1}{16}$ but this is not correct and I don’t know how to do the second part either

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Even though my answer does not agree with the one given in your book, I will post it here, to see if someone else in the community finds the error in my approach


If you call $S_i$, $1\leq i \leq 4$ the event of success in the $i$-th trial, then $$P(S_1 \cap S_2 \cap S_3 \cap S_4) = P(S_1) \cdot P(S_2|S_1) \cdot P(S_3|S_1\cap S_2) \cdot P(S_4|S_1\cap S_2 \cap S_3).$$ You already noted that $P(S_i) = \frac{1}{2}$, so we must have $$0 \leq P(S_1 \cap S_2 \cap S_3 \cap S_4) \leq \frac{1}{2}.$$


Let us see two scenarios in which extreme values are attained.

  1. Two urns containing $4$ black balls and $4$ white balls, respectively.
  2. Two urns, one containing $1$ black ball and $3$ white balls, one containing $3$ back balls and $1$ white ball.

In both cases, pick randomly one urn and extract $4$ balls and let $X$ be the random variable counting the number of, say, black balls extracted.

In the first scenario $P(X = 0) = P(X=4) = \frac{1}{2}$ and $P(X=1) = P(X=2) = P(X=3) = 0$.

In the second scenario $P(X=0) = P(X=2) = P(X=4) = 0$ and $P(X=1) = P(X=3) = \frac{1}{2}$.

So in both cases $\Bbb E[X]=2$.

Let us now check $P(S_i)$, which is given by $$P(S_i) = \frac{P(S_i|U_1) + P(S_i|U_2)}{2},$$ $U_1$ and $U_2$ being the event of picking first and second urn respectively.

In the first scenario $P(S_i|U_1) = 1$ and $P(S_i|U_2) = 0$, so that $P(S_i) = \frac{1}{2}.$

In the second scenario $P(S_i|U_1) = \frac{1}{4}$ and $P(S_i|U_2) = \frac{3}{4}$. Thus, again $P(S_i) = \frac{1}{2}$ as required.