Let's say I have a data set of avg. temperatures in a region over 7 years, and the trend is generally increasing.
Example:
2010 = 20.2 degrees,
2011 = 21.9,
2012 = 20.8,
2013 = 22.4,
...
2016 = 25.4
I am interested in finding out whether the avg. temperature will reach a certain level, say 27 degrees or higher by year 2020. How do I calculate or estimate this probability?
I know that if I do a regression, I can find what the regression line predicts the temperature at 2020. But how can I find like a numerical probability? How would I go about using max likelihood?
Thanks!