I was thinking about coronavirus and a question came to my mind. Let's say pandemics occur every 100 years and every person's lifespan is exactly 60 years. what is the probability that a random person experiences a pandemic during his lifetime? is it 60%? (Supposing that pandemics occur for one moment and go away immediately)
This is confusing for me because we are looking at an infinite time-span. I've visualized the problem in the following figure:
I'm wondering how I can model this problem. Any help would be appreciated.
Let's imagine that pandemics appear at year $0, 100, 200$... Then, in order to avoid living through them, a person must be born between the year $0$ and $40$ of a century (whether you want to count those in or not depends on the time you consider the pandemia to last). Therefore, I think the proability you are looking for is $1-0.4=0.6$, just like you said.