Let consider a simple pendulum of angular displacement $\theta(t)$ that starts at $\theta(0) = \alpha \in (-\pi,\pi)$ with no initial velocity.
$\theta$ is given by the ODE $$ \left\{ \begin{aligned} & \theta^{\prime\prime}+\omega^2 \sin \theta = 0 \\ & \theta(0) = \alpha,\ \theta^\prime(0) = 0 \end{aligned} \right. $$ where $\omega := \sqrt{g/\ell}$, with $g$ the acceleration due to the gravity and $\ell$ is the length of the pendulum.
Physics textbooks tells us that under the small-angle approximation $\theta \ll 1$, since $\sin \theta \simeq \theta$, one gets the linearised equation $$ \left\{ \begin{aligned} & \theta_1^{\prime\prime}+\omega^2 \theta_1 = 0 \\ & \theta_1(0) = \alpha,\ \theta_1^\prime(0) = 0 \end{aligned} \right. $$ and one has $\theta \simeq \theta_1$.
Of course this is not very convincing... A lot of ODEs have chaotic behaviour, so it is not clear at all that replacing $\sin \theta$ by $\theta_1$ will not lead to huge changes to the solution.
I am looking for a rigorous mathematical analysis of this problem. I am particularly interested for a result that looks like an error estimate of the form $$\forall t \geq 0,\quad \vert \theta(t) - \theta_1(t) \vert \leq F(t,\alpha)$$ where $F$ is as explicit as possible, with of course $F(t,\alpha) \to 0$ when $\alpha \to 0$.
I would also be interested for the high-order approximations $\theta_n$, where we replace $\sin \theta$ by the $n$ first terms of its Taylor series. For instance, $$ \left\{ \begin{aligned} & \theta_3^{\prime\prime}+\omega^2 \left( \theta_3 - \frac{1}{6} \theta_3^3+\frac{1}{150}\theta_3^5 \right) = 0 \\ & \theta_3(0) = \alpha,\ \theta_3^\prime(0) = 0 \end{aligned} \right. $$
Thanks!
You won't get an error bound for all $t$ like you ask because the frequency of the approximation and the frequency of the real pendulum differ, so $\theta$ will drift away from the approximation. The fact that the real solution is periodic comes from conservation of energy and the form of the equation. The maximum amplitude has to repeat, then you are in the same state as the last maximum, so the swing will repeat, and the position is periodic.
I don't believe you can get a closed form solution for the exact equation. What we usually do is expand the solution in a series. You write $$\theta''(t)+\omega^2 \theta(t)=\omega^2(\theta(t)-\sin(\theta(t))\approx \omega^2\left(\frac {\theta(t)^3}6-\frac{\theta(t)^5}{120}+\ldots\right)$$ The leading term cancels on the left, so you can solve the right ignoring the left, then plug each solution into the right and solve again. You get a series expansion in harmonics of the original $\omega$