Texas hold'em pecularity with different number of players

59 Views Asked by At

While simulating Texas hold'em poker hands, to find the probability that certain two cards would give the best hand after river, I found a pattern that I can't explain.

I made $100,000$ simulations for pair of aces with $n$ players to find the mean probability $p$ to get the best hand after river. To compare the results for different number of players I used the measure $m=p\cdot n$. If $m=1$ the probability is about average to have the best hand and generally $m$ times average probability.

The result of the simulation was:

 n   m
 2  2.30
 3  2.70
 4  2.97
 5  3.14
 6  3.24
 7  3.30
 8  3.29
 9  3.26
10  3.20
11  3.13
12  3.04

There seems to be a maximum probability (over average) to have the best hand with pair of aces with $7-8$ players. Why would $m$ be less than maximal with two players?

1

There are 1 best solutions below

1
On BEST ANSWER

Let $q$ be the probability that a uniformly randomly drawn pair of cards loses against a pair of aces. If there are $n$ players, there are $n-1$ other players, so under the assumption of independence the probability for the pair of aces to win would be $q^{n-1}$, and thus $m=q^{n-1}n$. This is $0$ for $n=0$ and goes to $0$ for $n\to\infty$, so it must have a maximum in between. To find it, set the derivative with respect to $n$ to $0$, which yields $\log q+\frac1n=0$ and thus $n=-\frac1{\log q}$.

In your case, the maximum is around $7.5$, so we have $q\approx e^{-\frac1{7.5}}\approx87.5\%$. You can see in this graph that this rather primitive model reproduces the data reasonably well. In a proper calculation, $q$ would depend on the community cards, and we would average over the community cards.