Okay, a bit of a background where this question is coming from. I just watched this video "How lucky is too lucky" which delves into the recent Minecraft speedrun controversy.
Now, the probability of some event happening was determined to be extremely unlikely, and to put that into perspective it was put into terms of "how many years would all the population in the world have to do the task every second for it to be plausible to happen". Let's say this number turns out to be a million-billion years.
So, if that event happens today, should I be surprised/doubtful? It had good chance of happening in a million-billion years, and maybe that time period starts from now. If it happens again within this time period, then yes, I would be surprised/doubtful. I don't understand why some event being extremely unlikely would be a valid argument against it being done fairly without external influences, if it happened only once.
Note: I am not too invested in this controversy apart from the math. I am mentioning it here only to give a good reference and some background on where my question is coming from.