a simple question about conditiona probability

41 Views Asked by At

known conditions:

$$ P(b|a) = 0.6 \\ P(c|b) = 0.8 \\ P(c|\neg b) = 0.7 $$

What I want to solve:

$$P(b\cup c|a )$$

(in the condition of "a" happen, at least one of b and c happen. )

I tried to break it up into:

$$P(b|a) + P(c|a) - P(bc|a)$$

but the final part $$P(bc|a)$$ stuck me so long ...