Imagine you're a court clerk recording information about court appearances in a munincipal court. Past records show that on a typical day in this court, in 50% of criminal cases heard, the accused defendant is Black. Just before the last case on a given day, you notice that eight (80%) of ten criminal cases heard by the court on that day involve Black defendants. The last case to be heard is also a criminal case. What is the probability that the defendant is this last case is Black?
Is the computation in this problem the same as the computation in this next problem?
You're witnessing someone flip a coin. On eight (80%) of ten coin flips, the coin lands heads. Past records show that this coin lands heads 50% of the time. This coin will be flipped one last time. What is the probability that the result of this last coin flip will also be heads?