I want to find an equation that will calculate the probability of 3 events occurring in a row (consecutive) given a population.
Example
- I have 5 empty slots in a row to place balls __ __ __ __ __
- Balls are drawn randomly from a bag (80% chance of black, 20% chance of white, each draw is an independent event that does not affect the next draw)
1 possible arrangement after all the balls are drawn is B, W, W, B, W
What is the probability that after all the empty slots are filled, I will have AT LEAST 3 black balls in-a-row? Example would be W, B, B, B, B
Equation Inputs:
- Sample/population size = X
- Probability of drawing back ball = P(B) [which then means P(W) = 1-P(B)]
Equation Output:
Probability of having AT LEAST 3 black balls in a row anywhere in the population
Note
Of course with a small population, I can simply brute force each scenario and sum the probabilities, but the reason I need an equation is because my population size could be 1000