Let X, Y, Z be three events in a probability space. Suppose that X and Y are conditionally independent given Z. Can we say that X and Y are conditionally independent given Z'(Z complement)? Can anyone give a counter example or valid proof?
2026-03-29 12:31:39.1774787499
Conditional independence in three events
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Suppose you have the following objects of different shapes, sizes, and colors:
$1$ Large Blue Square
$1$ Large Blue Circle
$1$ Large Red Square
$1$ Large Red Circle
$1$ Small Blue Square
$2$ Small Blue Circles
$1$ Small Red Square
$1$ Small Red Circle
Suppose you randomly p[ick one of these objects, and define the following events:
$X$: the object is Blue
$Y$: the object is a Square
$Z$: the object is Large
It is easy to see that $X$ and $Y$ are independent given $Z$: if the object picked is Large, then the probability of picking a Blue object is $50%$, no matter whether the given objects is a Square or a Circle.
However, $X$ and $Y$ are not independent given $Z'$: if the object you picked is not Large (i.e. Small), then the probability of picking a Blue object is higher if you also know you have picked a Circle, as opposed to having picked a Square.