A student is applying to two different agencies for scholarships. Based on the student’s academic record, the probability that the student will be awarded a scholarship from Agency A is 0.55 and the probability that the student will be awarded a scholarship from Agency B is 0.40. Furthermore, if the student is awarded a scholarship from Agency A, the probability that the student will be awarded a scholarship from Agency B is 0.60. What is the probability that the student will be awarded at least one of the two scholarships?
There are three cases I believe, one where they get into A but not B, B but not A, and both A and B.
Case 1, A but not B: There is a .55 chance they get into A. Due to the second condition, the student now has a .6 chance of getting into B, so to not get into B it is .4 chance. $$\implies\text{Case 1} = .55 \cdot .4 = 0.22$$
Case 2, B but not A: There is a .4 chance to get into B. No other effects happen so there is just a $1-.55=.45$ chance of not getting into A. $$\implies\text{Case 2} = .4 \cdot .45 = 0.18$$
Case 3, both A and B: If we get into A with .55 chance, then we can get into B with .6 chance. $$\implies\text{Case 3} = .55 \cdot .6 = 0.33$$ (one more thing regarding this part^, what if the student gets into B first? would this matter? I'm assuming that order doesn't matter here but idk if i should or not, esp since my answer is wrong.)
Adding this up I get the total probability would be $$0.22 + 0.18 + 0.33 = 0.73$$
This is wrong. The correct answer is apparently 0.62. What is the flaw in my logic?
Addendum added to respond to the comment/question of Max0815.
Let $x = p(B|\neg A), ~y = p(\neg B|\neg A).$
Then
$$(.55 \times .6) + (.45 \times x) = .4 \implies $$
$$x = \frac{.4 - [(.55)(.6)]}{.45} = \frac{7}{45} \implies $$
$$y = 1 - x = \frac{38}{45}.$$
Then, the probability of no scholarship is
$$\left[(1 - .55)y\right] = \frac{45}{100} \times \frac{38}{45} = \frac{38}{100}.$$
Therefore, the probability of at least 1 scholarship is
$$1 - \frac{38}{100} = \frac{62}{100}.$$
Addendum
Responding to the comment question of Max0815.
To compute the overall probability of a B scholarship, you have two mutually exclusive events, whose probabilities must be added together.
The $p(B) = p(A \cap B) + p(\neg A \cap B).$
You know that the
$p(A \cap B) = p(A) \times p(B|A) = .55 \times .6 = .33$.
So, you know that
$p(\neg A \cap B) = p(B) - p(A \cap B) = .4 - .33 = .07.$
You also know that $p(\neg A) = 1 - .55 = .45.$
Further, you know that $p(\neg A \cap B) = p(\neg A) \times p(B|\neg A) = p(\neg A) \times x.$
This implies that $.07 = .45 \times x \implies x = \dfrac{7}{45}.$
Further, if the event A fails (i.e. the event $\neg A$ occurs), either the event B occurs or it does not occur.
This implies that $x + y = 1.$