I toss a coin 3 times and the first time I have Heads and Tails for the first 2 (H1, T2). Now whats the probability to get Heads in the 3rd toss? Can you explain using Bayes theorem please? Many thanks
2026-04-03 02:41:28.1775184088
Conditional Probability simulation with coins
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Those events are independent. That is, getting Heads and then Tails does not affect the outcome of the third experiment. Therefore, the probability of Heads in the 3rd toss is 0.5.
In terms of Bayes theorem:
$$P(T_3=Heads|T_1=Heads,T_2=Tails)=P(T_3=Heads)=1/2.$$